Market Recap – May 24, 2024

Summary:

  • Weekly Returns (Friday Open – Thursday Close) & YTD Returns*: [1]

Markets generally declined this week despite strong earnings, primarily due to rising interest rates following hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve. International markets also suffered as Chinese markets fell, impacted by weak earnings and concerns about rising US interest rates affecting consumers. China’s export-driven growth remains inextricably linked to the US consumer. [1]

  • Fed Minutes: The Fed Minutes, a detailed record of the committee’s policy setting meeting that comes out around 3 weeks after the FOMC, came out on Wednesday. They showed that members of the committee hinted at the possibility of needing to raise rates if inflation does not improve.[2]
  • Nvidia Earnings: Nvidia announced a record quarterly revenue of $26.0 billion, up 18% from Q4 and 262% from a year ago. They also declared a ten-for-one forward stock split effective June 7th, 2024, and a 150% cash dividend increase to $0.01 per share on a post-split basis. [3]
  • Advanced S&P Global PMI:  The US S&P Global Composite PMI improved to 54.4 in May’s flash estimate, up from 51.3. The manufacturing PMI increased to 50.9 from 50.0, and the services PMI rose to 54.8 from 51.3. All flash indicators point toward accelerating US business activity. [4]

Chart of the Week:

Economic Outlook:

Summary: 

Recent economic indicators, including labor markets, retail sales, and sentiment, have underperformed expectations. Despite this, prospects for strong growth in the next quarter remain optimistic. They are supported by increased government spending, advanced purchasing manager indices, inventory restocking, improved banking liquidity, and robust earnings. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 2024 is currently 3.5%. [5]

  • Unemployment: We assign a greater than 80% probability of the unemployment rate ending 2024 at over the Fed’s 4.0% target due to an increase in layoffs as heavily indebted firms struggle to refinance their debt at higher interest rates. [6]
  • Fiscal Policy: We expect fiscal policy to remain stimulative for the foreseeable future with the Treasury General Account having close to $1 trillion to spend, which will also improve liquidity in the banking system. [7]
  • Inflation: We expect inflation to remain above the Fed’s target in 2024, barring an unforeseen recession. Consumer demand is still growing, albeit at a slower pace. Supply-side shocks, including freight rates, commodity prices, and food prices, are rebounding. [8]

*Dow Jones is price return

*SP500 is price return

*NASDAQ is price return

*US Small Cap Stocks is Russell 2000

* US Bond Market is Bloomberg Aggregate

*International Stocks is MSCI ACWI ex-US Index

*Weekly Returns is May 9th, 2024-May 16th, 2024

*YTD is Jan 2nd, 2024-May 16th, 2024

By: Nick Colletta, CFA, CAIA

Sources:

  1. https://www.morningstar.com/
  2. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 30–May 1, 2024 (federalreserve.gov)
  3. NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal 2025 | NVIDIA Newsroom
  4. Advanced Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May (fxstreet.com)
  5. GDPNow – Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (atlantafed.org)
  6. Businesses continue to struggle with high prices and interest rates | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (minneapolisfed.org)
  7. Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits with F.R. Banks, Other Than Reserve Balances: U.S. Treasury, General Account: Week Average (WTREGEN) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
  8. Drewry – Service Expertise – World Container Index – 23 May

Bridge Advisory LLC Disclosures

Bridge Advisory, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Investment Advisory Services offered through Bridge Advisory, LLC. Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Bridge Advisory, LLC. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy; opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This newsletter expresses the views of the authors as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice.

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