Market Recap – June 28, 2024

Summary:

  • Weekly Returns (Friday Open – Thursday Close) & YTD Returns*: [1]

Markets showed a mixed performance this week, with small-cap and tech stocks leading gains. This was driven by sustained enthusiasm for AI and unexpectedly robust growth indicators.

  • Nike’s Earnings: Nike’s shares dropped nearly 20% during Friday’s trading session after the company projected a 10% decline in quarterly sales. This sharp decrease is attributed to weakening consumer demand and sluggish sales in China. [2]
  • PCE Inflation: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE index, met expectations for May. The year-over-year headline PCE was 2.6%, and the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, also recorded a 2.6% year-over-year increase. [3]
  • Apple & China: The latest iPhone data indicates a sharp rebound in Apple’s sales in China after a slow start to the year. Shipments of foreign-branded smartphones in China rose by 1.425 million units in May, reaching 5.028 million units, up from 3.603 million units a year earlier. This is crucial for Apple, as China remains the world’s largest smartphone market. [4]

Chart of the Week:

Source: Torsten Slock, Ph.D.

Economic Outlook:

Summary: 

Recent economic indicators, including labor markets, retail sales, and sentiment, have underperformed expectations. Despite this, prospects for strong growth in the next quarter remain optimistic.  They are supported by increased government spending, advanced purchasing manager indices, inventory restocking, improved banking liquidity, and robust earnings. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 2024 is currently 2.7%. [5]

  • Unemployment: We assign a greater than 90% probability of the unemployment rate ending 2024 at over the Fed’s 4.0% target due to an increase in layoffs as heavily indebted firms struggle to refinance their debt at higher interest rates. [6]
  • Inflation: We expect inflation to remain above the Fed’s target in 2024, barring an unforeseen recession. Consumer demand is still growing, albeit at a slower pace. Supply-side shocks, including freight rates, commodity prices, and food prices, are rebounding. [7]
  • Consumers: Our analysis indicates that consumer demand is expected to remain neutral, contingent upon the unemployment rate maintaining a level below 4.5%. Nevertheless, we maintain a cautious stance regarding the potential for consumers to overextend themselves financially through excessive use of credit.

*Dow Jones is price return

*SP500 is price return

*NASDAQ is price return

*US Small Cap Stocks is Russell 2000

*US Bond Market is Bloomberg Aggregate

*International Stocks is MSCI ACWI ex-US Index

*Weekly Returns is June 21st, 2024-June 27th, 2024

*YTD is Jan 2nd, 2024-June 27th, 2024

By: Nick Colletta, CFA, CAIA

Sources:

  1. https://www.morningstar.com/
  2. Nike (NKE) earnings Q4 2024 (cnbc.com)
  3. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
  4. Apple iPhone Shipments In China Jump 40% After Big Discounts  | ZeroHedge
  5. GDPNow – Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (atlantafed.org)
  6. Businesses continue to struggle with high prices and interest rates | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (minneapolisfed.org)
  7. Drewry – Service Expertise – World Container Index – 23 May

Bridge Advisory LLC Disclosures

Bridge Advisory, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Investment Advisory Services offered through Bridge Advisory, LLC. Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Bridge Advisory, LLC. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy; opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This newsletter expresses the views of the authors as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice.

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