Market Recap – July 5, 2024

Summary:

  • Weekly Returns (Friday Open – Thursday Close) & YTD Returns*: [1]

This week’s market performance was mixed, highlighted by notable gains in tech stocks. A significant driver of this upward momentum was Tesla’s share price surge, which contributed to lifting both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 indices.

  • Tesla Deliveries: Tesla reported a smaller-than-anticipated 5% decline in vehicle deliveries for the second quarter. Wall Street had projected deliveries of 438,019 vehicles, but Tesla exceeded these expectations by delivering 443,956 vehicles in the three months ending June 30th. This slight outperformance led to a surge in the company’s share price over the past week. [2]
  • Labor Markets: The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.0% in May to 4.1% in June. Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls demonstrated strength, with 206,000 jobs added, surpassing the expected 190,000. This discrepancy further highlights the ongoing divergence between the Household Survey and the Establishment Survey. [3]
  • PMI’s: This week’s ISM PMI reports were weaker than anticipated, with manufacturing at 48.5% and services at 48.8%. In contrast, the S&P PMI figures exceeded expectations, with manufacturing at 51.6% and services at 55.3%. While the Federal Reserve favors the ISM report due to its historical significance, the S&P PMI offers insights from a broader subset of companies. [4]

Chart of the Week:

Former President Donald Trump has taken his biggest lead in the fivethirtyeight polling averages (which aggregates all major polls) since the debate.

Source: Fivethiryeight.com

Economic Outlook:

Summary: 

Recent economic indicators, including labor markets, retail sales, and sentiment, have underperformed expectations. Despite this, prospects for decent growth in the next quarter remain optimistic.  They are supported by increased government spending, advanced purchasing manager indices, inventory restocking, improved banking liquidity, and robust earnings. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 2024 is currently 1.5%. [5]

  • Unemployment: We assign a greater than 90% probability of the unemployment rate ending 2024 at over the Fed’s 4.0% target due to an increase in layoffs as heavily indebted firms struggle to refinance their debt at higher interest rates.  As of today, the unemployment rate ticked above the Fed’s 4.0% target. [6]
  • Inflation: We expect inflation to remain above the Fed’s target in 2024, barring an unforeseen recession. Consumer demand is still growing, albeit at a slower pace.  Supply-side shocks, including freight rates, commodity prices, and food prices, are rebounding. [7]
  • Consumers: Our analysis indicates that consumer demand is expected to remain neutral, contingent upon the unemployment rate maintaining a level below 4.5%. Nevertheless, we maintain a cautious stance regarding the potential for consumers to overextend themselves financially through excessive use of credit.

*Dow Jones is price return

*SP500 is price return

*NASDAQ is price return

*US Small Cap Stocks is Russell 2000

*US Bond Market is Bloomberg Aggregate

*International Stocks is MSCI ACWI ex-US Index

*Weekly Returns is June 28st, 2024-July 4th, 2024

*YTD is Jan 2nd, 2024-July 4th, 2024

By: Nick Colletta, CFA, CAIA

Sources:

  1. https://www.morningstar.com/
  2. Tesla’s quarterly deliveries fall less than expected; shares rally (msn.com)
  3. Civilian unemployment rate (bls.gov)
  4. ISM Report On Business® (ismworld.org)
  5. GDPNow – Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (atlantafed.org)
  6. Businesses continue to struggle with high prices and interest rates | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (minneapolisfed.org)
  7. Drewry – Service Expertise – World Container Index – 23 May

Bridge Advisory LLC Disclosures

Bridge Advisory, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Investment Advisory Services offered through Bridge Advisory, LLC. Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Bridge Advisory, LLC. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy; opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This newsletter expresses the views of the authors as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice.

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